'Some damned foolish thing in the Balkans'
'Some damned foolish thing in the Balkans' Bismarck had predicted, would ignite the next war. The assassination of the Austrian heir apparent, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, by Serbian nationalists on June 28, 1914, satisfied his condition. Austria-Hungary, with the bellicose frivolity of senile empires, determined to use the occasion to absorb Serbia as she had absorbed Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1909. Russia on that occasion, weakened by the war with Japan, had been forced to acquiesce by a German ultimatum followed by the Kaiser's appearance in 'shining armour', as he put it, at the side of his ally, Austria. To avenge that humiliation and for the sake of her prestige as the major Slav power, Russia was now prepared to put on the shining armour herself. On July 5 Germany assured Austria that she could count on Germany's 'faithful support' if whatever punitive action she took against Serbia brought her into conflict with Russia. This was the signal that let loose the irresistible onrush of events from then on. On July 23 Austria delivered an ultimatum to Serbia, on July 26 rejected the Serbian reply (although the Kaiser, now nervous, admitted it 'dissipates every reason for war'), on July 28 declared war on Serbia, on July 29 bombarded Belgrade. On that day Russia mobilised along her Austrian frontier and on July 30 both Austria and Russia ordered general mobilisation. On July 31 Germany issued an ultimatum to Russia to demobilise within twelve hours and 'make us a distinct declaration to that effect'.
War pressed against every frontier. Suddenly dismayed, governments struggled and twisted to fend it off. It was no use. Agents at frontiers were reporting every cavalry patrol as a development to beat the mobilisation gun. General Staffs, goaded by their relentless timetables, were pounding the table for the signal to move lest their opponents gain an hour's headstart. Appalled upon the brink, the chiefs of state who would be ultimately responsible for their country's fate, attempted to back away but the pull of military schedules dragged them forward.
August 1914. Barbara Tuchman